A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
