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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.